The NBA's Most Improved Player Award is heating up as we have a new leader at the top and a surging choice in third-place. Deni Avdija held the top of the leaderboard for weeks, but now that belongs to Jalen Johnson with Jalen Duren in the hunt. Let's take a look at the top five choices and who I bet on to win the award with odds courtesy of DraftKings.
NBA Most Improved Player Award Rankings:
1. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks (-130)
Jalen Johnson is the new leader in the clubhouse for Most Improved Player as his recent play and injuries to the rest of the field have lifted him from +240 prior to the All-Star break to -130 two games post break.
Johnson has only missed six games this season and the departure of Trae Young to Washington has given Johnson the free rein in this Atlanta offense. The Hawks sit at 28-31 and the 9th seed of the Eastern Conference. Atlanta is a 0.5 game up on Charlotte who is in the final spot of the play-in and 2.0 games ahead of Milwaukee who is in 11th.
Johnson has improved every statistical category from points (18.9 to 23.4), assists (5.0 to 8.1), rebounds (10.0 to 10.8), three-point percentage (31.2% to 34.1%), and free-throw percentage (74.6% to 78.5%). Johnson's points per game ranks 21st in the NBA, while his rebounds are 7th and assists are 5th.
Only Nikola Jokic, Alperen Sengun, and Johnson rank in the top 25 for points, rebounds, and assists, while Luka Doncic just missed the cut. That is elite company and driving force in why Johnson has been a top contender all season for the award and my pick to win.
Pick: Jalen Johnson to win Most Improved Player (2 units)
2. Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons (+500)
Over the last three weeks, Jalen Duren's odds have continued to shooter going from +5000 before the All-Star break to +2000 post-break and now +500. Duren has been a catalyst for Detroit's success and best record in the NBA despite playing less than 30 minutes per game. In his limited action (27.7 MPG), Duren has averaged six more points this season (11.8 to 17.8) and shooting above 60% again (63%).
As far as making a jump in rebounds, blocks, steals, or any other category, Duren is posting similar stats or slight lower numbers in most categories compared to last season. Duren's usage rate is down from 18.1% to 13.9% and his rebounding percentage is down two points (19.4% to 17.4%), but his offensive and defensive ratings are almost identical to last year.
One of the biggest factors to Duren's success is averaging fewer fouls per game (2.8) and fouling out less than his first three seasons — Duren fouled out once this season. Even though he's third in the odds race, I have Duren as my No. 2 option in Most Improved Player as Detroit's team success can carry him in this field.
3. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (+400)
The Portland Trail Blazers are currently in the 9th spot in the West and a safe bet to at least make the play-in. Portland is 5.5 games ahead of Memphis who is the 11th team in the West and 7.0 games behind Minnesota who is the 6th seed. Last year, Portland was 36-46 and finished 3.0 games out of the play-in, so this turnaround is a major positive and influence to Deni Avdija's case for Most Improved Player.
Unforutanelt, Avdija is out with a back injury and that's costed him in this market. Avdija was the favorite before the All-Star break, but exits the Suns game with the same injury. Before that game, Avdija missed 10 of Portland's 17 games prior to that matchup with the back injury, so it's been a lingering injury that could cost him this award.
Avdija has raised his points per game from 16.9 to 24.4 on almost five more field goal attempts and 3.5 more minutes per game. Avdija has nearly doubled his assists per game from 3.9 to 6.6 and averages four more free-throw attempts per contest too. Avdija has the stats to back up this award, but with 10 missed games and apparently more on the horizon, his odds of winning this award are slipping.
4. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (+1500)
Keyonte George is another player whose injury is hurting his case for Most Improved Player. George currently has an ankle injury that has sidelined him and forced him to play in only one game since Jan. 30.
Despite the injury, George has raised his points per game from 13.0 to 16.8 to 23.8 in his three seasons and his assists numbers from 4.4 to 5.6 to 6.5. George is averaging shooting splits of 45/37/89 this season and posting 23.4 combined field goal and free throw attempts per game for Utah. The Jazz have been tanking, so George at 22-years-old, has received more run and is capitalizing off 33.9 minutes per game.
Unfortunately, his team's success will bring him down in this market, as will his recent ankle injury that could keep him off the court due to Utah tanking.
5. Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks (+2000)
Ryan Rollins has made one of the largest leaps of anyone in the NBA when it comes to points per game jumping from 6.2 last year with the Bucks to 17.1 this season. Most of that is due to his minutes skyrocketing as Milwaukee needs help at the guard position and in a down year. Rollins is playing 32.4 minutes after a career-high of 14.6 last season and he's setting career-bests across the board in almost every category because of it.
The Bucks are 24-31 through 55 games and out of the playoff picture at 2.0 games behind the Hornets for the final spot. If Milwaukee somehow makes it in the playoffs and Rollins has an impressive March and April while averaging 20-plus points per game, he could be more in the mix, but it appears he will be a top-five finisher for the award. With shooting splits of 46/42/78, 5.4 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game, Rollins has certainly taken every advantage of his minutes increase and 48 starts over 53 games.
NBA Futures Card
2 units: Jalen Johnson to win Most Improved Player (-130)
2 units: JB Bickerstaff to win Coach of the Year (+130)
2 units: Oklahoma City Thunder to win NBA Finals (+125)
2 units: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP (+125)
2 units: Luka Doncic to win MVP (+400)
1 unit: Boston Celtics to win the East (+400)
1 unit: Golden State Warriors to miss playoffs (+120)
1 unit: Los Angeles Clippers to make the playoffs (+130)
0.5 unit: Boston Celtics to win NBA Finals (+2000)
0.5 unit: Victor Wembanyama to win MVP (+1200)
Follow my plays for the season on X @VmoneySports, Instagram @VmoneySports_ and Action App @vaughndalzell.
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