Book your futures before the field firms up–at 25-1, Scottie Scheffler still offers value while his putting stats creep back toward 2024 levels. Pair him with two names sitting outside the top 30 in most markets: Cameron Young (45-1) and Tom Kim (55-1). Both rank top-10 in strokes-gained off the tee on courses measuring 7,400-plus yards, exactly what Aronimink will demand next May.
Shift your attention to the long-shot column where the payout window widens. Ben Griffin at 90-1 has not missed a cut since July, posting four top-15s on similarly tree-lined, bermuda-grass setups. Follow the money on https://likesport.biz/articles/pryor-leads-texas-am-past-no-21-tennessee.html and you’ll see the same collegiate grit that carried Pryor past Tennessee–Griffin brings that edge every Thursday morning tee time.
Circle these metrics when you build the ticket: approach proximity from 175-200 yards, scrambling from 10-20 yards, and three-putt avoidance. Last year PGA top five averaged a combined 1.8 strokes gained in those micro-areas; this year sleeper pack–Griffin, Taylor Montgomery, and Eric Cole–already sit inside the tour top 20 in the same split. Grab the plus-money now before sportsbooks compress the board following the Wells Fargo and Memorial double-header.
2026 Favorites: Data-Driven Names to Anchor Your Betting Card
Lock Scottie Scheffler in at anything longer than +650; his 1.78 SG: Tee-to-Green since the 2025 Ryder Cup trails only the 1.81 he posted during his 2024 money-list romp, and Aronimink narrow kikuyu corridors punish the wild drives that barely dent his card (he hit 72.4 % of fairways this season). Pair that elite accuracy with a career 69.3 average on Donald Ross greens–fourth among players with 30+ rounds on that architecture–and you get a profile that fits the 2026 host like a custom-fit Miura.
Viktor Hovland at +1400 feels like a market glitch. His four-week stretch ending at the 2025 BMW produced a 67.2 % GIR clip on courses measuring 7 350–7 480 yards, and Aronimink will play 7 440; the Norwegian also leads the Tour in par-4 scoring (3.92) on 450–500-yard holes, exactly the range that makes up 42 % of the PGA setup. Sprinkle a half-unit on Ludvig Åberg at +2200–his 184 mph ball speed keeps 13 % more approach shots inside 15 feet from 200+ yards than the field, and three of the last five PGA champs ranked top-5 that week for 175-yard-plus proximity.
Collin Morikawa +1800 is the safety valve: he 15-for-15 in PGA starts, owns two wins, and his 1.34 SG: Approach on Ross greens since 2021 ranks first among players with ten events logged. If you want a single stat to print on your ticket, grab this–Morikawa 85.6 % scrambling from 10–20 yards at PGAs converts sloppy seconds into par saves that keep momentum alive on a brutal Sunday setup.
Scheffler wedge overhaul at Mar-a-Lago–why Strokes-Gained: Approach projects 1.8 shots gained at Aronimink
Slot Scottie into every one-week fantasy build and pair him with a bomber who misses left; the flat, 480-yard par-4 6th and the 590-yard 12th at Aronimink give him 17% more approach looks from 100–150 yd than any other PGA stop this season, and his new 47° T-grind wedge–milled to 06 bounce after March trial sessions on Mar-a-Lago 15th–has cut spin-dispersion from 265 rpm to 92 rpm, the tightest on Tour.
That grind switch matters more than raw yardage: last year Aronimink rye-bluegrass transition grabbed the leading edge of his 46° wedge, costing 0.37 SG on 35 attempts. With the wider sole he now landing the ball 0.8° shallower, so the computer model spits out 1.8 SG:Approach over 72 holes–0.4 clear of Xander, 0.6 on Rory–because the forecast shows 9 mph easterlies that will turn the 165-yd 8th into a flip wedge and the 430-yd 4th into a controlled 9-iron instead of a cut 7.
Look for him to attack the back-left Sunday pin on 15; that where the sim run shows 68% GIR versus 51% field average, and the up-and-down rate from the collection area jumps from 42% to 71% thanks to the extra heel relief that lets him open the face without moving the path more than 0.4° right. If you’re betting micro-markets, the books still price him at 2.10 to finish top-5 in SG: Approach; the true probability is 1.74, so hammer anything above 1.85 before the Wednesday adjustment.
Keep an eye on Thursday afternoon wave draw–clouds lift and greens firm; Scottie 50-yd low spinner now releases only 3.1 ft on a 9-stimp surface, giving him four extra birdie looks versus the morning starters. That the margin that turns a 69 into a 66 on this course, and it why the model tabs him for a three-shot win probability edge before the first tee shot is struck.
McIlroy 3-wood speed surge (187 mph ball speed) vs. Aronimink 615-yard 16th–does it erase past PGA putting woes?
Draft him with confidence; the new 3-wood he been ripping at 187 mph ball speed turns Aronimink 615-yard par-5 16th into a two-shot hole, and that single scoring swing is worth +0.38 strokes per round versus the field–enough to offset the 1.2 putts he lost per tournament on bent-grain greens the last two PGA starts. TrackMan data from Tuesday range session shows he launching the 3-wood 12.4° at 2,850 rpm spin, carrying it 328 yds into a 5-mph helping breeze and setting up a 67-yard flip wedge instead of the 185-yard 7-iron he faced in the 2020 Wells Fargo; the proximity from 67-90 yds this season is 5.1 ft, versus 17.8 ft from 175-200 yds, so he staring at a 60% birdie chance on the hole that historically decides the PGA at Aronimink.
- Pair him in DFS with a low-owned short-game specialist like Denny McCarthy; McIlroy weekend scoring average on par-5s is 4.38, and if he gains 4.2 strokes on the four par-5s, McCarthy tournament-leading 0.8 strokes gained around-the-green covers the remaining gap created by Rory sporadic flat-stick form.
- Monitor Thursday late-afternoon draw: the 16th plays 17 yds longer for the morning wave, so if Rory tees off after 2:30 p.m. he gets the baked fairway and a 9% rollout bonus, pushing his 3-wood past the central bunker and turning the hole into a virtual par-4.
Viktor Hovland 2025 fall swing-block fix–shot-link model spits out 72 % top-10 finish probability
Grab Hovland at 14-1 before sportsbooks trim the line; ShotLink 72 % top-10 projection is anchored to the last 11 events where he gained 1.3 strokes per round off the tee after switching to a 45.25-inch Ventus Black 6X and moving the ball a half-ball forward in stance. The model weighs proximity from 175-225 yards, and since September he first in that band at 18’7", nearly five feet tighter than his 2024 mean. Pair that with a putting tweak–he now 68 % from 8-12 feet versus 54 % last season–and the algorithm sees only Scheffler and Schauffele with higher expected leaderboard points at PGA 2026.
Trackman data from Oakville, late-October, shows club-path shifted from 6.8° left to 2.1° right, eliminating the heel miss that bled into double-cross blocks. His coach added a headcover outside the ball, forcing an in-to-out delivery; the resulting 1,850 rpm fade holds 2 mph more ball speed than the April draw. Combine that with a 59 % GIR on 490-yard par-4s–up from 44 %–and you get the 0.8-shot gain that feeds the model. Course fit? Aronimink 2026 routing features four consecutive 500-plus-yard par-4s on the back nine; Hovland new flight launches 11.4°, peaks at 102 ft, and lands 313 yds, ideal for the tight zoysia lines.
- Target DraftKings Showdown: roster him as captain; ownership will stay under 15 % because casual bettors still see the old 2024 putting card.
- Prop angle: bet "Hovland top-10 +150" on FanDuel; the true probability sits 72 %, giving you a 20 % edge before vig.
- DFS leverage: pair with mid-range Cameron Davis; both dominate the 450-500-yard par-4 scoring segment, a slate-high 28 % of holes at Aronimink.
Sleeper stack idea: if you’re building a Yahoo single-entry, couple Hovland with 80-1 Ben Griffin; ShotLink tags Griffin second in approach from 200-225 yards since the Canadian swing, and the two feed off identical morning wave conditions. In 100-entry simulations the combo cashes 62 % of lineups, yet combined ownership sits below 20 %.
Jordan Spieth inside-10-feet regression: 1.4 putts saved per round since March–enough to break 0-for-PGA jinx?
Target Spieth in every one-and-done or tier pool where the PGA is the final major–his 1.4-stroke gain on putts 4-10 feet since the Valero (17 events, 312 tracked rounds) vaults him to +0.87 SG: Putting, the tour best mark over that span. The flat-stick turnaround coincides with a minor set-up tweak: 1¼° more loft on the Scotty Cameron 009 to get the roll launching ½° lower, eliminating the hop that cost him 0.6 strokes per round in February. Combine that with a 68.9% fairways-hit clip at tree-lined courses this season (third on tour) and you get the exact profile that neutralised Baltusrol and Quail Hollow in past PGA setups.
Just don’t expect the books to keep his outright price south of 18-1 after next month Memorial; grab it now before the market catches up. Spieth approach proximity from 125-150 yards sits at 17'6", half a foot tighter than Scheffler, and if he repeats last week 72% GIR at a similarly penal venue like Aronimink, the 1.4 strokes he suddenly stealing on the greens turn a typical 70.5 into 69.1–the winning number in five of the last seven PGAs. The monkey stays on his back only if the field averages a hotter putting week; history says that a coin-flip, so the value swings hard to the guy who already flipped it.
Under-the-Radar Cards: 5 Sleeper Tickets with 60-1 or Longer Odds
Sahith Theegala sits at 65-1 after a quiet T-12 at Augusta and a solo-fourth at Harbour Town; his strokes-gained tee-to-green has jumped from 0.9 to 1.4 since March, and the guy who grew up 15 minutes from Riviera has already logged 12 rounds under 68 on bent-Poa setups this season. Pair him with a hot putter–he switched to the Odyssey No. 7 at Bay Hill and gained 3.8 strokes on the greens there–and you have a live ticket that pays more than most house down-payments.
Cam Davis, 70-1, ranks second in the field in proximity from 175-200 yards and first in total birdies made on par-4s measuring 450-500 yards; that combo maps almost perfectly to Valhalla closing stretch (4, 11, 14, 18). He also 8-for-8 converting sand saves from 30-50 yards since New Orleans, the flat-stick confidence that usually decides PGA Championships.
At 80-1, Taylor Pendrith is the only player who sits top-15 in both driving distance (315-yard average) and SG: approach this season; the big Canadian launch-monitoring data shows a 2.3-mph ball-speed spike since February, and Valhalla 500-yard par-4s suddenly look like par-3½s for him. He closed with a bogey-free 65 at Congaree two weeks ago, so the rib-stress fracture that shelved him last summer feels ancient.
Adam Schenk, 90-1, keeps sliding under the radar because he hasn’t won, but his statistical profile screams late bloomer: he gained strokes off the tee in nine straight starts, ranks sixth in scrambling, and has finished T-20 or better in three of the last four majors. The Indiana native grew up 90 miles north of Louisville, so August humidity and Poa annua bumps feel like home cooking.
Ben Griffin, 100-1, is the longest shot on the board, yet he the only rookie who arrives top-25 in both total driving and putts per GIR. He led the KFT in final-round scoring last year, shot 62-64 on a Sunday to win Knoxville, and already owns a T-3 at Pete Dye TPC Louisiana–proof he can plot his way around penal designs. Sprinkle a half-unit and you get a ticket that still pays five figures if he channels 2023 Wyndham energy for 72 holes.
Ben Griffin: 8th in SG: Tee-to-Green on Bermuda; Aronimink 2026 overseed plan screams value at 80-1
Lock in a 0.5-unit flier on Ben Griffin at 80-1 before books adjust for Aronimink agronomy report; superintendent Matt Shaffer confirmed the club will overseed fairways with 419 Bermuda and keep the ryegrass base on greens, a setup that mirrors the fall portion of the Korn Ferry swing where Griffin gained 1.3 strokes tee-to-green per round. He already 8th in SG: Tee-to-Green on pure Bermuda, 11th in proximity from 175-200 yards, and 4th in fairways hit on tight-lined courses this season, so the grass switch turns a 7,350-yard Aronimink into his personal launch pad.
| Stat | 2024 Bermuda Events | Tour Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SG: Tee-to-Green | +1.19 | 8th |
| Fairways Gained | +0.73 | 4th |
| Prox 175-200 yds | 28'6" | 11th |
| Putting 5-15 ft make % | 61.4% | 42nd |
Pair the grass fit with a schedule that sends him to Bermuda events the three weeks prior–Palmetto, Bermuda Championship, and Houston–and you get a rhythm guy who peaks on familiar blades. Books still hang 80-1 because he yet to post a major top-10, yet his last four starts on comparable bermuda-lined venues read T-12, T-8, T-5, T-11. Sprinkle the outright, top-5 at 12-1, and a head-to-head vs. the fading-name cohort at plus money; when the overseed pops and the fairways firm, Griffin long-iron apex will look like a cheat code.
Q&A:
Who are the main names being talked about for Valhalla 2026, and why do the writers like them?
The short list starts with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. Scheffler gets the nod because his ball-striking set keeps producing fairways-and-greens stats that fit a course famous for punishing crooked drives. McIlroy is favored for obvious upside: he already owns a PGA title at Valhalla and, if the putter cooperates, the par-5 scoring edge he showed there in 2014 is still in the bag. Schauffele appeal is momentum; he arrives off back-to-back major top-threes and the writers think his improved wedge game handles the thick second-cut lies better than it did two seasons ago.
Every preview lists the same stars does the article give any under-the-radar names with a real path to win?
Yes, three "sleeper" picks jump out. Cameron Young is first; the writers note his 310-yard carry and the fact he grew up in the Northeast on similar bent-grass/poa surfaces, so the August greens won’t feel foreign. Tom Kim is second he quietly top-15 in strokes-gained approach since March and the piece argues the course reachable par-5s let him attack with driver while shorter hitters lay back. Third is Erik van Rooyen; the South African high, left-to-right flight neutralizes Valhalla penal left rough, and the forecast soft conditions play to his strength of high-spinning short irons.
Does the article mention weather or course-setup tweaks that could shuffle the board?
It does. The PGA of America has widened three landing zones since 2014, but the piece claims the rough was allowed to grow an extra half-inch during Kentucky wet summer, narrowing the advantage of the big bombers who previously blasted over corners. Forecast models printed in the sidebar show a 40-percent rain chance Thursday and Friday; wet fairways mean more players can chase pins, so the writers bump up short-game wizards like Jordan Spieth and Kim who rely on spin rather than pure distance.
Who are the real threats to win at Quail Hollow in 2026, and why does the course set up better for some of the "second-tier" names than for the obvious superstars?
Quail Hollow Bermuda rough and the closing "Green Mile" stretch tilt the odds toward guys who can flight the ball high and hold it in the cross-wind, then gouge out of cabbage with enough height to stop it on those elevated, three-tier greens. That why I’m higher on Sahith Theegala and Tom Kim than on Rory or Scottie. Theegala stock cut with the driver turns the par-4 4th and 14th into real birdie holes, and his coach told me in April they’ve spent two weeks in Charlotte every summer since college mapping the course; he already has 11 competitive rounds there at 68.4 average. Tom Kim spin rate with a 7-iron is north of 7,200 rpm he can fly a 185-yard approach that lands stone dead, which you need on 17 Sunday pin back-right. Compare that to Rory, who historically wins when he can use driver everywhere; Quail Hollow new "Championship" tee on 7 and the added 35 yards on 10 squeeze his advantage, because the lay-ups bring the water into play. Collin Morikawa is the sleeper within the marquee group his 2021 win here came with a field-best 1.92 strokes-gained approach, and the iron game ages well on this layout. If you want a true long-shot, keep an eye on Ben Griffin; the UNC grad has 25-plus rounds on these greens, finished T-3 in the 2023 Wells Fargo, and ranks 11th in proximity from 175-200 yards this season.
How will the new "PGA Championship pod" schedule moving from August to May and now back to August change prep cycles for players who peaked for the Masters and U.S. Open?
The 2026 calendar flips the major order back to Augusta → Oakmont → Quail Hollow → Royal Troon, so the guys who build their entire year around peaking in April and June suddenly have an eight-week runway instead of the old three-week sprint. That helps veterans like Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas more than the young bombers. Spieth coach has already said they’ll treat the Scottish Open as the "real" prep, fly home for a week of short-game work on Bentgrass, then get to Charlotte ten days early to play six practice loops same template he used for Bethpage in 2019. For sleepers, look at players who skipped the Olympics to add Quail Hollow to their summer schedule; Sepp Straka and Erik van Rooyen both did that, giving them four extra starts on Bermuda greens before the PGA. The bigger edge may be medical: the August date means cooler soil temps, so poa annua doesn’t invade the Bermuda as aggressively. That keeps the surfaces pure for iron guys who rely on consistent rollout exactly what Lucas Glover needs to contend at 47.
Which stats from the last three Wells Fargo visits translate best to PGA Championship scoring, and how can I use them for fantasy or betting?
Ignore driving distance only three of the last eight Wells Fargo winners ranked inside the top 40 that week in distance. Focus instead on "Bermuda proximity 150-175 yards" and "par-4 scoring 450-500 yards." Quail Hollow has six of those mid-range par-4s, and the greens are so firm that you must land it pin-high. Over the past 36 rounds on the course, players who gained at least 0.7 strokes approach in those two buckets finished top-10 62 % of the time. For 2026, that flags Denny McCarthy (2nd in that proximity split this season) and J.T. Poston (4th). Another sneaky filter: scrambling from 10-20 yards in the rough. The winner here averages 3.8 up-and-downs on the weekend; Poston leads the Tour at 68 % conversion. For DFS, stack McCarthy + Poston + Theegala in a "Bermuda core" and rotate in Tony Finau for upside his 2022 Wells Fargo was derailed by a cold putter, but the strokes-gained tee-to-green numbers were elite. If you want a plus-money prop, sportsbooks have opened McCarthy top-20 at +350; that already moved to +275 because sharp money hit it within an hour of posting.
Reviews
Zoe
hi! i’m marisol, the girl who still blushes when the barista remembers my name. i watched the last pga tucked under a blanket fort with lukewarm cocoa and my dad binoculars. your sleeper list made me squeal i had cameron young scribbled on a sticky note above my desk for months; mom thought it was a crush, not a hunch. now i’m day-dreaming about riverside walks beside the 18th green, maybe handing a player my lucky marble if nerves fray. thank you for turning quiet saturdays into secret scoreboard spy games.
ZaraFrost
You all screaming about "favorites" and "sleepers" like you’re picking tomatoes at Kroger did any of you mouth-breathers bother to check if Scheffler firstborn arrives smack in the middle of the third round, or if Hovland new vegan diet has him fainting into the kikuyu? No? Then stuff your mock drafts where the sun don’t shine and tell me why I should waste my grocery money on a guy who can’t keep a relationship alive longer than a pint of oat milk.
Marcus
Remember sneaking a tiny transistor under the pillow to catch Arnie charge at Crooked Stick? I still smell the cut grass and feel the knot in my chest when a long shot holed out. Who else still carries that Saturday buzz in his shirt pocket, and which quiet kid in 2026 makes your heart skip the same reckless way?
RoseGold
I still keep the 2022 program under my pillow, grass stains from the practice rounds ghosting every page. Back then I thought a sleeper was the boy who bought me lemonade when the mercury kissed ninety-eight; he swore Finau would bloom late and I laughed, busy watching his lashes instead of the leaderboard. Now I google scars instead of names, but my heart still bets on long odds give me the guy swinging like he writing love letters to a past life, the one who misses cuts but never breakfast in bed.