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Each season, the NBA’s Most Improved Player award signals the arrival of a rising star – a player who has taken a meaningful leap forward from contributor to franchise cornerstone.
Recent winners such as Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ja Morant and Tyrese Maxey have combined for over 25 All-Star appearances. Antetokounmpo, of course, went on to win multiple MVP awards and lead the Milwaukee Bucks to an NBA Championship – a reminder that this honor often precedes true superstardom.
This year’s race appears similarly compelling. The top three contenders all rank inside the league’s top 33 in Value Over Replacement Player, indicating that their improvement on the court has translated into tangible on-court value, not just inflated counting stats.
Using FTN’s new NBA StatsHub, let’s break down this year’s NBA Most Improved Player candidates and determine whose leap has been the most impressive as the regular season enters its stretch run.
Defining the Award
According to NBA.com, the Most Improved Player award is intended to recognize an ascending player who has made a dramatic improvement from the previous season or seasons – often one whose growth has directly contributed to his team’s success.
Since the 2011-2012 lockout-shortened campaign, only one player has won the award while playing on a team that finished with fewer than 37 wins, reinforcing the importance of team context in the voting process.
Last year’s winner, Dyson Daniels, was a relative outlier. He joined Pascal Siakam as the only players in the past decade to capture the award while averaging fewer than 20 points per game. Daniels’ candidacy was bolstered by elite defensive production, highlighted by his 3.1 steals per game.
Overall, Daniels improved his per-game averages by 8.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.6 steals – a statistical jump that helped the Hawks improve their record by four wins from the year prior.
Using the above historical framework as context, we turn to NBA StatsHub to evaluate this season’s leading contenders.
Jalen Johnson (+110, DraftKings)
FGOE: +2.1%
PTOE: +0.7
Team Record: 29-31
Jalen Johnson has emerged as one of the league’s breakout stars this season, posting career-highs across the board with 23.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game. He and Nikola Jokić are the only players averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists this season, putting Johnson in rare elite company.
The advanced metrics reinforce that production. Johnson owns a +2.1% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation, indicating that his scoring efficiency exceeds league-average expectations based on shot quality. He ranks eighth in the league in the NBA in Value Over Replacement Player, a strong signal of all-around impact. Among Hawks players with at least 600 minutes logged, only Dyson Daniels (+7.3) has a better Net Rating than Johnson (+4.3).
Johnson’s improvement isn’t confined to one area – he has scaled his role while maintaining efficiency, contributing as a scorer, rebounder and facilitator. Entering the stretch run, he has positioned himself as the clear frontrunner for this award.
Jalen Duren (+360, DraftKings)
FGOE: +4.6%
PTOE: +1.0
Team Record: 42-14
The primary case for Jalen Duren centers on his role as the No. 2 option on the top-seeded Detroit Pistons. Team success has historically carried weight in Most Improved Player voting, and Duren’s scoring jump has coincided with Detroit’s rise to the top of the Eastern Conference.
However, players of Duren’s archetype have rarely captured this award. The last traditional center to win Most Improved Player was Jermaine O’Neal in 2002. Unlike perimeter creators, interior finishers are often more dependent on playmaking around them to generate efficient scoring opportunities. Cade Cunningham’s emergence as an elite facilitator has undoubtedly played a role in Duren’s scoring increase from 11.8 points per game last season to 18.0 this year.
It’s also worth noting that Duren averaged 11.6 rebounds during the 2023-2024 campaign, compared to 10.5 rebounds this season. While his efficiency metrics are strong – +4.6% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation – the overall statistical leap is less comprehensive than some of his peers. Based on historical precedent, he would be an outlier if he were to win this award in 2026.
Deni Avdija (+450, DraftKings)
FGOE: +0.1%
PTOE: 0.0
Team Record: 28-31
Like the other candidates in this year’s Most Improved Player race, Deni Avdija is enjoying a career-best campaign. He has increased his scoring by 7.5 points per game compared to last season while nearly doubling his previous career-high in assists.
However, much of that statistical growth appears to be volume-driven rather than efficiency-driven. Avdija ranks 151st out of 273 qualified players in Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation and 147th in Points Over Expectation, indicating that his scoring has largely aligned with expectation rather than exceeding it.
Defensively, Avidja has struggled, too. Portland’s defensive rating is 7.2 points better with him off of the floor this season, and he is tied for the second-lowest defensive rating on the Trail Blazers in FTN’s Player Ratings.
Health is another complicating factor. Avidja has played meaningful minutes in only one game since the All-Star break and appears likely to miss additional time while managing a bothersome back injury, which could limit his ability to build momentum in the race.
The Takeaway
NBA StatsHub illustrates that Johnson has improved across the board while maintaining strong efficiency metrics as a scorer, rebounder and a facilitator.
Duren’s role on a top-seeded team strengthens his candidacy, but historically, voters have leaned towards players who create offense independently rather than those whose production is heavily tied to surrounding playmaking.
Avdija’s statistical jump is notable, yet his efficiency profile and recent back injury make his path to the award more complicated.
The NBA’s Most Improved Player award has historically rewarded meaningful, measurable leaps in production – not merely expanded opportunity. When evaluating this year’s top contenders using recent precedent, Jalen Johnson is a clear standout among his peers.