UFC Cage Locks: Moreno to have home-crowd advantage vs. Kavanagh

The UFC returns to Mexico City for the third time in as many years when former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno faces rising contender Lone’er Kavanagh in a Fight Night headliner this weekend in Mexico’s capital.

Saturday night’s card at Arena CDMX will mark Moreno’s sixth career UFC main event spot and the eighth time he has fought in his home country. The 32-year-old Tijuana native is coming off the first stoppage loss of his career and looking to avoid a two-fight skid for the second time since 2023.

Meanwhile, the 9-1 Kavanagh will be competing in his first UFC main event in just his 11th pro MMA bout. The 26-year-old from England last fought in August when he suffered his first loss and was finished by Charles Johnson via strikes, but Kavanagh accepted this bout with Moreno on short notice to get back into the win column and shake up the rankings at 125 pounds.

There are eight matchups featuring a fighter from Mexico on the card, including a co-main event that sees surging bantamweight contender David Martinez taking on one-time title challenger Marlon Vera of Ecuador who’s aiming to snap a streak of three consecutive decision losses.

All 26 fighters scheduled to compete on the card successfully made weight Friday, including undefeated newcomer Regina Tarin who faces Ernesta Kareckaite in a 130-pound catchweight on just a few days’ notice.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh (subject to change) plus full predictions from our panel. Two of our three prognosticators are coming off nailing their dart throw picks last week and all three are on one side of the main event…

MAIN CARD

— Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh

— Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez

— Daniel Zellhuber vs. Bobby “King” Green

— Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes

— Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

— Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco

PRELIMINARY CARD

— Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Daniel Medina

— Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson

— Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho

— Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes

— Regina Tarin vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

— Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall

— Damian Pinas vs. Wesley Schultz

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Ryan Gandra -650

Favourite: Brandon Moreno -210

Underdog: Douglas Silva de Andrade +190

Dart Throw: Kevin Borjas wins by decision +800

I am surprised that Jose Medina keeps getting UFC bouts. Not only has he gone 0-3 in the UFC, he lost his Contender Series fight that earned him a roster spot! Gandra is on a seven-fight win streak with six coming inside the distance and I would be shocked if he loses here. … Moreno has so much experience in five-round fights that, at this price and despite being favoured by more than two-to-one, feels like a discount. … It has been a while since we last saw de Andrade compete and at 40 years old, he is in the home stretch. However, he has always been a tough out and Reyes, despite having a lot of experience, has not faced anyone at his level. This is a good litmus test for the debutant and I am not sure that he passes it. … Imanol Rodriguez looked solid on The Ultimate Fighter, but Borjas has been a tough test for everyone who has faced him. He is very technically sound and does not make many mistakes. He is also not a potent finisher at this level, so if he wins, I believe it will be in a closely contested decision.

DAN’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Francis Marshall -550

Favourite: Brandon Moreno -210

Underdog: Macy Chiasson +152

Dart Throw: Chito Vera by decision +500

Francis “Fire” Marshall’s momentum was extinguished by some dodgy scorecards in his loss to Marion Santos at UFC 313. All debating aside, Marshall showed he can juggle fire in the Octagon while bringing the heat on offence. Erik Silva is 0-2 in the UFC and is in desperate need of a spark, but I see little MMA evidence to suggest a case of arson with moneyline here. … Brandon Moreno is a battle tested veteran of the sport and a proud Mexican. It’s hard to see him dropping this one to Lone’er Kavanagh. … Macy Chiasson holds a significant height and reach advantage over Ailin Perez. Macy will also be hellbent on halting a two-fight losing streak and reminding everyone just how talented and dominant she can be. I think recency bias is impacting the lines here and Chiasson has a great chance to upset the odds here. … Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera is no easy out. He will be well aware of David Martinez’s striking power and attempt to make the necessary adjustments. There are some real question marks as to whether or not he can, but I expect him to use his narrow loss in Vancouver as fuel to bounce back in Mexico.

MIKE’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Edgar Chairez -350

Favourite: Brandon Moreno -210

Underdog: Marlon Vera +260

Dart Throw: Kris Moutinho by KO/TKO/DQ/SUB +800

On a chalky card, taking Moreno at this number in Mexico is one of the only viable favourite selections and this number in hindsight could end up looking like a bargain given the disparity in experience and level of competition faced. … Between Chairez’s age, his home crowd advantage and the fact his only loss in the past 2.5 years is to current titleholder Josh Van, I like Chairez to get it done and build off his submission win over CJ Vergara in his lone 2025 appearance. … Moutinho is 0-3 in the UFC and his opponent is 1-2. Both are likely fighting for a spot on the roster. Moutinho is coming off a bad KO loss but prior to that he was on a solid finishing streak on the regional circuit and Cristian Quinonez has been finished in all his pro losses and was submitted in each of his past two UFC bouts.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Gandra + Marshall + Chairez

Parlay odds: -133 (to win: $75.32)

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 4 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2026 record: 1-3 (L3)

2026 winnings: -$210.88 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (11-5, +12.11 units)

Cage Lock: 2-2 (-$146.99)

Favourite: 4-0 (+$228.19)

Underdog: 3-1 (+$380)

Dart throw: 2-2 (+$750)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (9-7, +4.16 units)

Cage Lock: 3-1 (-$58.51)

Favourite: 3-1 (+$24.97)

Underdog: 2-2 (+$100)

Dart throw: 1-3 (+$350)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (6-10, -8.81 units)

Cage Lock: 3-1 (-$28.44)

Favourite: 2-2 (-$53.08)

Underdog: 0-4 (-$400)

Dart throw: 0-4 (-$400)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)

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