Carson Benge will likely be a starter for the 2026 Mets (and you should be fine with that)

From the very beginning of the offseason, David Stearns—normally one who plays things extremely close to the vest—has been fairly clear whenever the subject of the 2026 outfield comes up. He has repeatedly stated that 2024 first round pick Carson Benge will enter spring training with a chance to win a starting job for the major league team. The team’s actions over the past few months—trading franchise stalwart Brandon Nimmo, pursuing exactly one starting outfielder (ultimately settling on center fielder Luis Robert Jr.) while leaving the other empty spot wide open—have only further proven that Stearns has not been misleading us on the subject. And while he is facing some competition this spring, it’s not exactly a murder’s row of alternative options—recent signings MJ Melendez and Michael Tauchman would probably be the likeliest alternatives, but they are both players who have some strengths but may be better served as backups.

Indeed, while Benge is not an absolute lock to make the team—there is always the chance that the Mets could decide he needs a little bit more time in the minors—it seems clear that the front office’s hope is that he will head north with the club as their starting right fielder. And if he happens to not make the team right out of camp, it’s fair to assume that he would still get the call to the majors before too long.

It’s not hard to see why the Mets are enamored with Benge. After being drafted with the 19th overall pick out of Oklahoma State in the 2024 draft, the 23-year-old outfielder was sensational in his first full pro season last year. He started off his year in Brooklyn, whose park has a history of being murderously tough for left-handed hitters specifically. It was perhaps a sign of how high Benge’s stock would ultimately rise that he was up to the task of playing in that difficult environment, as he put up a 168 wRC+ in 60 games in High A ball along with a respectable .178 ISO despite hitting just four home runs. Once he received a midseason promotion to Binghamton, his power numbers surged, as he put up a .254 ISO and doubled his home run output from his Brooklyn numbers in almost half the games played in Double A ball. That dramatic surge against improved competition caused the Mets to once again promote him, though shortly after arriving at Syracuse he was hit in the hand with a pitch and subsequently missed a few weeks. His numbers upon returning to finish out the season were not particularly impressive (more on that in a bit), but those couple weeks of middling production were not enough to dampen an exceptional season. Splitting time across three different levels, he put up a .281/.385/.472 slash line with 15 home runs (good for a 150 wRC+) and 22 stolen bases across 116 total games.

All of these factors have caused Benge to dramatically rise on various prospect lists this offseason. Virtually every reputable outlet has ranked him as the second best prospect in the Mets’ farm system, behind only Nolan McLean. In overall MLB prospect rankings, he has come in at 16th by MLB Pipeline, 19th by Baseball America, 15th by ESPN, 18th by The Athletic, 10th by Baseball Prospectus, and 21st by FanGraphs. Virtually all of the write-ups from these outlets have painted a similar picture of a player who is solid in virtually all aspects of the game (if not outright great in any one particular area). Evaluators have also praised Benge’s outfield defense, suggesting that he could prove to be an above-average center fielder. While the Mets may end up giving him some playing time there, the acquisition of Robert means that the majority of his playing time in 2026 will almost certainly come in right field, where he should grade out as a plus defender.

Despite all the factors working in Benge’s favor, there has been a somewhat surprising lack of excitement from Mets fans—a group that, historically, has not had problems with placing grand expectations upon prospects with much lesser pedigrees—at the idea of him playing a major role for the 2026 team. Some have outright questioned the logic of almost handing him a starting job right out of the gate and called for Stearns to acquire another outfielder before the season starts. Two primary reasons have been cited for this skepticism: 1) Benge’s poor numbers in his limited Triple A action last year suggest that he could use more seasoning before being fully ready for the big leagues, and 2) putting this much confidence in any rookie with zero major league experience is a big gamble for a team with playoff aspirations.

Let’s address both of these points. The first one is fairly easy to counter: While a cursory glance at Benge’s Baseball-Reference page will suggest that he struggled in Syracuse, the actual batted ball data shows that he was hitting the ball about as hard and consistently as he was in the lower levels. MLB.com’s Sam Dykstra provided the specific numbers recently:

Benge ran an above-average 105.9 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity at Triple-A, topped out at 110.4 mph and made contact on 87 percent of his pitches inside the zone. (MLB average for Z-contact was 83.2 percent.) His chase rates were fine, too, if closer to average, while his 18.4 percent K rate and 8.7 percent walk rate didn’t scream struggle. Instead, Benge may have fallen victim to rough luck in a smallish sample – his .188 BABIP was significantly lower than his marks of .372 and .337 at High-A and Double-A, respectively.

When taking these factors into account, it makes sense that the front office was not particularly discouraged by Benge’s showing in Syracuse. Perhaps something about his performance in spring training will suggest that he needs more minor league time after all, but pointing to his bad topline numbers in 24 Triple A games without looking at the larger context is not an effective argument against his major league readiness.

The second point is perhaps a bit more complicated. Because yes, trusting an unproven rookie inherently carries some amount of risk. Benge wouldn’t be the first top prospect who couldn’t translate his minor league dominance into major league production, and he wouldn’t be the last. And if he proves to not be ready, the Mets will be in a bit of pickle, as they might well have a major hole in their outfield. But let’s consider a couple of factors here:

1. Given the additions the Mets have made to the offense this offseason—Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, the aforementioned Robert—there are, on paper, relatively few gaping holes in the lineup right now. Benge will probably start out the season in the bottom third of the lineup, where there won’t be all that much pressure on him to put up huge numbers. If he winds up being the great player the Mets expect him to be and they move him up in the order, great. But it’s not an outright requirement for the team to be successful.
2. Recall who Benge would be replacing in the outfield. Brandon Nimmo, despite showing clear signs of decline, was broadly fine in 2025 but no more than that. He put up a 114 wRC+ last year with defensive statistics (0 OAA) that, quite frankly, probably undersell the level of degradation in his outfield skills. Benge is a very, very safe bet to be a significantly better defensive outfielder than Nimmo in 2026. If he provides even comparable offensive numbers (i.e. slightly above average production), he will almost certainly prove to be an upgrade over what the Mets got out of the position in 2025. And that is a somewhat measured projection for Benge—there is upside for a much greater level of offensive output.
3. Again, the Mets would not be in an ideal position if Benge proves to not be ready for a major league role—but they wouldn’t necessarily be helpless. Tauchman or Melendez are not particularly exciting options, but maybe one of them proves to be at least passable if pushed into a more meaningful role. Maybe Baty proves that he can be at least passable in the outfield and the Mets just end up playing him there more. Maybe one of the team’s other top prospects with outfield flexibility—A.J. Ewing, Ryan Clifford, maybe even Jacob Reimer—becomes ready at some point in the season and can take the job. Or—worst case scenario—the Mets may need to address the hole at the trade deadline, where it is usually not particularly hard to find decent corner outfield options available. Point being, there will likely be ways for the team to pivot if they need to.
4. Here is what I would consider the most important point: Every front office makes decisions about which risks they are willing to accept and which ones they are not, but virtually every player the Mets might have acquired to play over Benge would have carried some type of risk. Stearns could, for instance, have decided that the safety of acquiring a proven major league contributor would have made it worth it to beat the Yankees’ offer for Cody Bellinger and place in one of the corner outfield spots. That might make us feel more comfortable projecting a baseline level of production in 2026, but the team would then be assuming risk in potentially locking themselves into a player for more years than they were comfortable with. He could have signed a smaller name to a lower-level contract—Mike Yastrzemski or someone of that ilk—but then you are locking out the potential higher upside that a player like Benge provides. You can do this with essentially every other player the Mets could realistically have pursued. So when the subject of risk comes up with Benge, we should acknowledge the potential fallbacks, but we should also note that the risk of placing trust in a top 20 prospect is not actually THAT high when compared to the risks that alternative moves would have held. It’s just a different type of risk—but nevertheless a calculated one.

All of this is an extremely long-winded way of making a pretty simple point: we should be very, very excited to see the Mets giving Benge runway to be a major contributor to the team right out of the gate this year. Given his prospect pedigree, the median scenario we should be hoping for is that he will at least be a solid starting player—someone who perhaps needs to sit against some tough lefties to start but provides good offensive and defensive value on the whole. And again: the upside for even greater outcomes is there. Along with McLean, Benge could well be a leading candidate for National League Rookie of the Year (and it is worth noting that either of those two players winning the award would grant the Mets a PPI draft pick in the following year’s draft, provided they are both on the major league roster for most of the season). And given the emotional blow of the team losing numerous homegrown core players this offseason, the prospect of Benge coming up this year and cementing himself as a stalwart piece for the franchise’s new core should be one that puts a smile on every fan’s face.