Wizards Can’t Outshoot Their Laughable Defense in Loss to Raptors

The Wizards keep doing the improbable this season. Last night, for example, they shot 47.1% from three, were +15 on the scoreboard from deep (16 made threes to Toronto’s 9), and lost by nine. Once again, it wasn’t that close.

Bright side: the Wizards need to keep on losing, and at least they made the Raptors work for the victory.

The Wizards were committed to securing the important loss. Kyshawn George and Bilal Coulibaly — both of whom played pretty well — sat for the entire fourth quarter. No one played particularly badly. The least productive was Tre Johnson, though I thought he was okay. If he’d played his usual full set of minutes, I suspect he’d have picked up a few assists, and the impact of the turnovers would have moderated.

This is not to say the Wizards played well. Their defense was a joke (and not a funny one, except perhaps to the Raptors), and their offensive production seemed more a case of Toronto “not respecting the game plan,” as an assistant coach told the Toronto sideline reporter at halftime.

Here are the current standings in The 2026 NBA Race to the Bottom:

1. Sacramento Kings | 14-47 | .230
2. Indiana Pacers | 15-45 | .250
3. Brooklyn Nets | 15-44 | .254
4. Washington Wizards | 16-43 | .271
5. New Orleans Pelicans | 18-42 | .300
6. Utah Jazz | 18-41 | .305

It’s going to be a tight race.

Thoughts & Observations

• The Wizards were awful defensively, but Tristan Vukcevic had one defensive possession in the first quarter I thought was excellent. Brandon Ingram drove from the wing, and Vukcevic made a great rotation, got there early and forced a kickout pass. Naturally, the Raptors scored on the play anyway, but hey…that rotation!
• Another nice defensive moment: Toronto secured the ball off a Wizards miss and made a good outlet pass that seemed to set up a transition opportunity. Sharife Cooper picked up the ball handler and forced him to turn, shutting down the fast break and turning it into a halfcourt possession. Naturally, the Raptors scored on the possession.
• #SoWizards moment on Washington’s first offensive possession: Coulibaly spotted Bub Carrington come open on a baseline cut and made an excellent pass. The problem? Carrington was just clearing the side and wasn’t looking. The pass sailed out of bounds.
• #SoWizards defensive moment: Washington had four players involved in defending a two-man pick-and-roll. Somehow, the play ended in an easy layup AND an and-one for roll man Sandro Mamukelashvili.
• Tidbit from the Toronto broadcast: Washington’s loss to Atlanta was their ninth of the season by 30 or more points. That’s the most in the NBA this season, and the most in Washington’s franchise history.
• For some reason, the Wizards started the second half once again by running a postup for Carrington. Once again, it failed. I guess maybe they think this is some kind of player development thing. Maybe? I don’t really see the point — Carrington plays small, doesn’t play with the toughness and physicality to be successful on this sort of play.
• If you want to see a well-run fastbreak, check out the Toronto possession that ended at 5:36 of the third quarter. Immanuel Quickley pushed to the middle, forced defenders to commit, and hit a trailer for a dunk. Excellent bsasketball.
• Toronto burned a few possessions late that (barely) got their offensive rating below 140 for the game. Their 139 offensive rating is the best against the Wizards this season — topping the 133 posted by…the Toronto Raptors the day after Christmas.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.