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Although there was a power shift in the AL East in 2025, the quality of baseball’s toughest division remained unchanged. Led by two 94-win teams in the Blue Jays and Yankees, the five AL East clubs won more games than any other division.
There should be no letdown coming this year, as Toronto followed its World Series appearance with an aggressive offseason, the Yankees again field an outstanding roster, the Red Sox appear ready to take the next step, and the Orioles made moves to bounce back. The Rays seem to be entering a rebuilding year, but no one should be surprised if four AL East teams are playing in October.
Toronto Blue Jays
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 1): 86-76, 61.7% odds to make the playoffs, 23.8% odds to win the division
What happened last season? Until the top of the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series, everything broke right for the Blue Jays in 2025. A postseason underdog in the eyes of many, Toronto won the AL East before disposing of the Yankees and Mariners to reach the World Series. The Jays’ seven-game battle with the Dodgers will go down as one of the best championship series of all time. A blown save by Jeff Hoffman and an 11th-inning homer from Dodgers catcher Will Smith left the fan base in a bizarre state of simultaneous pride, disappointment and exhaustion. The team’s success was sparked by a lineup that limited strikeouts and led the majors in OBP. The pitching staff was just good enough for most of the season before receiving a September spark when prospect Trey Yesavage arrived in the majors.
What happened in the offseason? Toronto’s front office was aggressive this winter, determined to continue its momentum as the league’s fastest rising franchise. Improving the pitching staff was the main goal, and it was achieved. Shane Bieber surprisingly chose to exercise a one-year player option, Dylan Cease was added to the top of the rotation on a seven-year contract and Cody Ponce returned from South Korea on a three-year pact. The bullpen wasn’t ignored, as Tyler Rogers was added to a deep group. Kazuma Okamoto arrived from Japan, giving the lineup another player with solid power and excellent on-base skills. The flurry of additions softened the blow of losing longtime fan favorite Bo Bichette to the Mets. The successful offseason ended with a thud when news broke that Anthony Santander would miss most of the 2026 season and Bieber would open the campaign on the injured list. The Santander news prompted a trade of outfielders, with Toronto shipping Joey Loperfido to Houston for Jesús Sánchez, who should play regularly against right-handers.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Everything is in place for the Jays to repeat as AL East champs. The rotation should be among the best in baseball, thanks to the combination of skilled veterans Cease, Bieber and Kevin Gausman, and the immense upside of Yesavage. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could build on his postseason power explosion, and a strong debut from Okamoto would offset the loss of Bichette. If Hoffman lowers his home run rate, he could be an effective closer who leads a deep relief corps. The team’s outstanding defensive play is often overlooked but remains a major reason for its success.
Worst-case scenario: As with most rotations, there are minefields everywhere. Bieber has significant durability concerns, and Cease is coming off a down year. Yesavage needs to prove he isn’t a flash in the pan, Ponce must show his stuff works in North America, and José Berríos dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness last year before missing all of October. Toronto’s offense could take a step back if George Springer can’t maintain his surprising, late-career resurgence. Hoffman enters 2026 on the hot seat, and his struggles could prevent the rest of the relief corps from settling into their roles. The AL East continues to be a juggernaut, so the journey from first to fourth is a relatively short one.
Make-or-break player: Kazuma Okamoto. With Bichette gone and Springer due for some degree of regression, Okamoto needs to have an immediate impact in his first MLB season. The 29-year-old is in his prime and has a lengthy track record of excellence in Japan. His contact and power skills are so good that he could be viewed as the club’s third-best hitter by midseason. But a slow adjustment from the new arrival would leave the Jays’ lineup looking average rather than excellent.
Season prediction: It’s World Series or bust in Toronto. After spending most of the past 30 years looking up at the AL East superpowers, the Blue Jays enter 2026 with arguably the best roster in the division. The guess here is that Toronto narrowly edges its tough divisional competition and is one of the most feared teams in October. This roster is deep, diverse and talented.
Read more: AL East offseason grades
New York Yankees
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 1): 87-75, 69.7% odds to make the playoffs, 31.4% odds to win the division
What happened last season? After a strong start to the year, the Yankees floundered in June and July, which left them looking up at the Blue Jays in the standings. A furious finish (18-7 in September) enabled New York to tie Toronto, but it lost the AL East crown thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. A wild-card series victory over the rival Red Sox set up an ALDS showdown with the Blue Jays, where the Yankees bowed out of that best-of-five series in four games. Predictably, Aaron Judge was the best thing about the Yankees, as he was named AL MVP for a third time. Thanks to his leadership, New York’s offense was the most productive in baseball. Max Fried also stood out, anchoring the rotation in his first season in the Bronx. But the pitching staff was average overall, primarily due to Gerrit Cole’s elbow injury and an erratic bullpen. Devin Williams couldn’t replicate his success in Milwaukee and lost the closer’s role. The front office aggressively tried to fix the relief corps at the trade deadline, but while the addition of David Bednar paid big dividends, the moves were hit-and-miss overall.
What happened in the offseason? The Yankees’ front office was surprisingly quiet over the winter. While New York remains a high-spending club, the only high-priced signing of the offseason was a January move to retain Cody Bellinger on a five-year contract. A trade for starting pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has thrown 281 innings over five injury-plagued seasons, was the only other major transaction. Shortly prior to spring training, another decision was made to keep the band together, with Paul Goldschmidt returning to the club on a one-year, $4 million deal. After appearing in 146 games last year, the 38-year-old figures to be a platoon partner for Ben Rice at first base.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Having the best hitter in baseball gives New York a leg up on the competition. Judge is so dominant that the Yankees can have a high-scoring lineup with merely respectable contributions from other key players, such as Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Rice. But a rise to the top for New York would likely be fueled by its rotation, which could be dominant by the summer if Cole and Carlos Rodón make seamless returns from injury. Fried is terrific, Cam Schlitter has elite upside, Weathers has plenty of potential, and Luis Gil owns a lifetime 3.50 ERA. Plus, if the rotation is thriving in July, the front office will undoubtedly make moves to shore up holes in the lineup.
Worst-case scenario: The bottom of the Yankees’ lineup leaves much to be desired, as Ryan McMahon, José Caballero and Austin Wells are below-average hitters. The lineup could become a weakness if Trent Grisham regresses from a career year and oft-injured veteran Giancarlo Stanton misses time. And while the rotation could be a strength by the summer, it’s an injury or two away from being a major sore spot in April and May. Fans in the Bronx should worry about the team getting off to a slow start, which could preclude the Yanks from competing for a division title.
Make-or-break player: Trent Grisham. The fact that the 29-year-old received a qualifying offer shows how much he means to the Yankees. And the fact that he accepted the offer shows how tepid his free-agent market was expected to be. The Yankees already have weak spots in the lineup and cannot afford another one if Grisham regresses from his 2025 form (34 HR, .811 OPS) and returns to being the player who hit .191 with a .651 OPS from 2022 to ‘24.
Season prediction: The Yankees have had a winning record for 33 straight years, and they’ve appeared in the postseason in eight of the past nine campaigns. Anyone who counts them out is making a mistake. That said, the AL East is going to be a grind this year, as the Blue Jays have a terrific roster, and Boston and Baltimore should have winning records. The Yankees figure to again battle Toronto for AL East supremacy until the final days of the regular season.
Boston Red Sox
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 1): 86-76, 58.9% odds to make the playoffs, 21.6% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Red Sox surpassed expectations for a mediocre season and secured a postseason berth for the first time since 2021. Their improvement was even more surprising given that they traded away their best hitter, Rafael Devers, in June. After arriving in an offseason trade, left-hander Garrett Crochet was the team’s most valuable player by a wide margin. Aroldis Chapman defied the aging process by being a lights-out closer, and the likes of Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran keyed an offense that was productive despite the lack of a true superstar. The Red Sox were as balanced as they were successful, as the pitching staff ranked fifth in ERA and the lineup finished seventh in runs scored.
What happened in the offseason? The Red Sox created their share of winter splashes. They used their connections to Cardinals president Chaim Bloom to swing trades for Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras. Contreras is the likely cleanup hitter, while Gray will join offseason signee Ranger Suárez as the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters. Boston’s moves were more understated than some fans had hoped, with Bregman’s free-agent departure the notable low point. Yet the loss of Bregman was mitigated somewhat by acquiring Caleb Durbin and signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Durbin and Marcelo Mayer will handle second and third base, while IKF and Romy Gonzalez will provide help off the bench.
Best-case scenario for 2026: This rotation can carry the team into the postseason. Crochet is a Cy Young contender, and Suárez and Gray are better than the No. 2 and 3 starters on most teams. Connelly Early and Payton Tolle have major upside, while Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo and Kutter Crawford can be innings-eaters. The offense could be excellent as well. Having former top prospects Anthony and Mayer in the lineup for a full season will make a big difference. The outfield is especially deep and talented.
Worst-case scenario: The lineup takes a step back. Story is an injury-plagued 33-year-old who exceeded expectations last season. And while Anthony is a future superstar, prospect development is not always linear. Mayer, Durbin and Ceddanne Rafaela could be below-average offensive contributors. On the mound, Chapman rescued an unsettled bullpen by turning back the clock in 2025, but there are no guarantees he can repeat the feat in his age-38 season. The ultra-competitive AL East will force the Red Sox to be on their toes all year.
Make-or-break player: Roman Anthony. He should be a perennial All-Star. Anthony is an on-base machine who reached base at a .402 clip in the minors and posted a remarkable .396 OBP in 71 games as a rookie in 2025. Add rapidly developing power and plus speed, and Anthony could be the American League’s best leadoff hitter this season. Of course, asking a 21-year-old to carry an offense is fraught with risk, but we are talking about a special player.
Season prediction: Although they’ll likely fall short of the AL East title, the Red Sox should comfortably secure a wild card. The depth on this roster is impressive, especially in the outfield and the rotation. To boost the team’s October pursuit, the front office might need to add an infielder and a reliever at the trade deadline. As a big-market team with a solid farm system, the Red Sox have the resources to make that happen.
Tampa Bay Rays
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 1): 81-81, 29.9% odds to make the playoffs, 6.7% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Rays had their worst season since 2016 amid adverse conditions, as they lost access to their ballpark long before the season began. Playing home games at a minor-league park might’ve impacted a pitching staff that was previously more effective but slumped to the middle of the pack in 2025. Still, there were success stories in a disappointing year, namely the play of budding superstar Junior Caminero, who ranked sixth in baseball in homers (45) and eighth in RBI (110). Jonathan Aranda enjoyed a breakout season, and veterans Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe were productive. There were successes on the mound as well, especially Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot.
What happened in the offseason? The Rays’ front office is known for making confounding moves that often work out in Tampa’s favor, and this offseason was no exception. The Rays started by adding two veteran outfielders and a pitcher — Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley and Steven Matz — who were not exactly coveted free agents. They hit the trade market, jettisoning Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Jake Mangum and Shane Baz for a long list of prospects. Among that group, outfielder Jacob Melton could crack the Opening Day roster, and right-hander Michael Forret could reach the majors by the summer. Anderson Brito, who joined Melton in arriving from Houston, is a notable prospect but likely more than a year away. Veteran utilityman Gavin Lux arrived as well, and he’ll handle second base in Tampa. The Rays made a curious decision to acquire third baseman Ben Williamson, who struggled (.604 OPS) in his rookie season in Seattle. Their offseason ended with a sensible signing when they added Nick Martinez, who logged a 3.83 ERA over 42 starts and 40 relief outings in two seasons with the Reds.
Best-case scenario for 2026: When the Rays have effective seasons, they’re usually led by their pitchers. And with the team returning to Tropicana Field, the stage is set for their hurlers to have strong years. A healthy Shane McClanahan will be a necessity for success, and some young pitchers need to take steps forward, notably Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour. The bullpen could also be excellent, provided that Edwin Uceta, Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger form a dominant late-inning trio.
Worst-case scenario: This might be a retooling season in Tampa, and a last-place finish in the ultra-competitive AL East is the most likely scenario. Once we get past Caminero, the lineup is weak. Díaz and Aranda should be productive, but everyone else looks like a below-average offensive player. Even the platoon-happy Rays are unlikely to find the right mix with this group. And while the pitching staff has potential, there are enough questions to expect this to be an average group. The doomsday scenario is if McClanahan continues to deal with injuries, leaving the staff without an ace.
Make-or-break player: ShaneMcClanahan. At his best, the 28-year-old is a Cy Young candidate who can win enough games to make up for some lackluster arms at the back of the rotation. But the lefty’s most recent MLB start came in 2023, and his repeated setbacks last season raise concerns that he will never regain his peak form. For the Rays to have any chance at a wild-card spot, McClanahan needs to make 30 starts and post an ERA that resembles his lifetime 3.02 mark.
Season prediction: The Rays won’t be one of the worst teams in baseball. This organization is too crafty to fall to that level. But it’s hard to look at this roster and envision this team finishing ahead of anyone else in the AL East. In fact, it would make sense for the front office to continue its rebuild into the season, unloading the likes of Díaz and Rasmussen if they get off to good starts. We might be looking ahead to 2028 as the season when Tampa Bay reemerges as a postseason contender.
Baltimore Orioles
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 1): 84-78, 51.2% odds to make the playoffs, 16.5% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Orioles were the most disappointing team in baseball. A long, painful rebuild seemed on course to yield a sustainable contender as Baltimore entered 2025 with three straight winning seasons and two consecutive postseason appearances. Then the O’s started slowly and never recovered, finishing last in the AL East and 19 games behind the Blue Jays and Yankees. The pitching staff was abysmal, finishing 26th in baseball with a 4.60 ERA. And the offense wasn’t much better (24th in runs scored), as key lineup centerpieces Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman endured disappointing campaigns while the likes of Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Mountcastle missed significant stretches due to injury.
What happened in the offseason? While the front office deserved scorn for its inactivity last season, it should get credit for its efforts this winter to get the team back on track. The most notable addition was first baseman Pete Alonso, who gives the club a veteran, middle-of-the-lineup thumper who was desperately needed to anchor the ascending players. To a lesser degree, the same can be said of Taylor Ward, who was acquired from the Angels after going deep 36 times in 2025. There were also multiple additions to Baltimore’s pitching staff, as Shane Baz was acquired from the Rays, Chris Bassitt joined the team on a one-year deal and closer Ryan Helsley was signed to a two-year pact. Two familiar faces returned in starter Zach Eflin and reliever Andrew Kittredge. Blaze Alexander arrived via trade in February and should be a valuable utilityman. Unfortunately, a good offseason ended with a thud, when it was announced that Jackson Holliday underwent surgery to repair a fractured hamate bone and will open 2026 on the IL.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Baltimore has the young talent to get back on track in a hurry. Henderson can play at a superstar level by moving past the shoulder injury that impacted him last year. Rutschman was once considered a future star, Holliday is a former No. 1 draft pick and Samuel Basallo brings a booming bat in his first full big-league season. The pitching staff has less upside, but it could still be better than average if Trevor Rogers can replicate his breakout 2025 and Kyle Bradish continues to ascend toward ace status. In a perfect world, the Orioles have an elite offense and a solid rotation, with the potential to add to their bullpen this summer.
Worst-case scenario: Clearly, a team that won 75 games last season is no sure thing to contend for a postseason berth. Rutschman is especially concerning, having logged a .639 OPS since the 2024 All-Star break. There are several lineup regulars who have yet to prove themselves at the major-league level, including Holliday, Cowser and Basallo. The pitching staff could also go south in a hurry. Baz (4.87 ERA) and Eflin (5.93 ERA) were awful last season. Bradish made just 14 starts over 2024 and ‘25, and Rogers was toiling in the minors less than a year ago. The bullpen is even shakier, as Helsley finished his 2025 season by posting a 7.20 ERA in 20 appearances with the Mets, and there’s little behind him.
Make-or-break player: Adley Rutschman. A healthy, productive Rutschman gives the Orioles a massive leg up on the competition. After all, while many teams slot their catchers near the bottom of the lineup, Rutschman started his career as one of the few backstops who could deliver an .800 OPS from a premium lineup spot. His sudden, steep downturn in the middle of 2024 changed the face of this offense. Now, with the additions of Alonso and Ward, the lineup has the potential for excellence if Rutschman gets back on track. And given the mediocre ceiling of the pitching staff, Baltimore needs a productive lineup to have a chance at a postseason berth.
Season prediction: The Orioles are scrambling to get their franchise back on track. By now, Holliday, Henderson, Rutschman, Westburg, Cowser and Coby Mayo were supposed to have formed the AL’s most exciting offense. Instead, the lack of development from multiple players forced money that could’ve been allotted to the pitching staff to be spent on the lineup. Still, the front office added just enough on the mound to keep this team in wild-card contention entering 2026. The guess here is the Orioles join the likes of the Astros, Rangers and Royals in competing for the AL’s last postseason berth until the final days of September.