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For many teams, it would be a death sentence to lose their ace for the season before games had even begun. However, when the Yankees lost Gerrit Cole for the entirety of the 2025 campaign to Tommy John surgery, their pair of co-deputy-aces stepped up in a big way, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón pitching brilliantly as two of the best starters in the AL when it came to durability and run prevention. Fried is almost certainly this year’s Opening Day starter, while offseason elbow surgery for Rodón clouds the start of his season, creating some uncertainty for the 33-year-old southpaw as he enters his fourth season in pinstripes.
2025 Stats: 33 starts, 195.1 IP, 18-9, 3.09 ERA (132 ERA+), 3.78 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 25.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 1.01 HR/9, 1.05 WHIP, 3.2 fWAR
2026 ZiPS Projections: 24 starts, 129.1 IP, 10-8, 4.04 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 24.1% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.11 HR/9, 1.24 WHIP, 2.1 fWAR
2025 was undoubtedly Rodón’s best season with the Yankees, continuing a pattern of the lefty improving dramatically in each subsequent campaign with the team. He posted for the entire regular season, logging a career-high 33 starts and 195.1 innings, allowing him to rack up over 200 strikeouts for just the second time in his career. Home runs had been an issue his first two seasons with the Yankees, but he slashed those down to yield right around one per nine innings, allowing him to post a sub-four FIP and xFIP for the first time in pinstripes.
This success accompanied a philosophical shift from a pure power pitcher to a more well-rounded starter with more ways to get hitters out — a shift that began in 2024 as a way to prevent a repeat of his disastrous debut season with the Yankees. Last season saw Rodón continue to deepen his arsenal, deploying the changeup and sinker at the highest rate of his Yankees tenure in exchange for reducing his four-seamer usage rate. With this more varied repertoire, Rodón was one of only a handful of starters in the league to place in the 90th percentile or higher in fastball, breaking ball, and offspeed Run Value as measured by Statcast.
Rodón’s slider remained one of the best in baseball, tying for the fifth-highest Statcast Run Value at +12 runs by racking up an impressive 40.3-percent whiff rate, 39.2-percent strikeout rate, and 32.7-percent chase rate. His changeup became elite in 2024 and that remained the case in 2025, with a 35-percent whiff rate, 22.6-percent strikeout rate, and 38.7-percent chase rate. The pitch that intrigued me most was the sinker, used significantly for the first time since 2018 with the White Sox, and it looks like a serious weapon to neutralize lefties, limiting same-handed batters to a .119 batting average, .143 slugging, and .208 wOBA.
Becoming less predictable allowed Rodón to mitigate the batted ball woes that plagued his first two seasons in the Bronx. Relative to those first two seasons, Rodón’s exit velocity dropped from around 91 mph to 88.6 mph, his barrel rate slashed from about 11.5-percent to 7.5-percent, and his expected wOBA on contact from roughly .400 to .335. Most importantly, Rodón cut down significantly on the rate of pulled fly balls he allowed, going from about 22-percent between 2023 and 2024 to 15.3-percent in 2025. This evolution into a more complete pitcher is the number one factor in why I believe Rodón can maintain this level of performance in the upcoming season and well into his 30s.
However, the multi-million dollar question for Rodón (and Cole) is when he will make his return from offseason elbow surgery and what version of pitcher that will end up being. He underwent a procedure in mid-October to remove bone spurs and loose bodies from his pitching elbow, and it is worth wondering what effect that ailment had on his shelling at the hands of the Blue Jays in Game 3 of the ALDS. He and the team are targeting a late-April return, and by all accounts this spring he is right on schedule with that timetable. If all goes according to plan, he could miss just three to four starts, giving him an outside shot at making at least 30 starts for the third year in a row.
The projection systems can’t agree on the amount of time Rodón will miss. ZiPS provides one of the more pessimistic forecasts, skeptical that he will even reach 25 starts or 130 innings pitched. I suppose one saving grace is that they and the other projection systems expect him to pitch with the same effectiveness as last season when he returns. I also feel that none of the systems give Rodón proper credit for suppressing hits the way he did in 2025 — his .187 opponents’ batting average allowed was the lowest among any qualified starter in the AL — and this plus personal optimism over an on-schedule return to play lead me to remain bullish that Rodón’s 2026 can look at lot closer to his 2025 results than ZiPS predicts.
See more of the Yankees Previews series here.