Why Phillies would be wise to extend Jesús Luzardo soon

Why Phillies would be wise to extend Jesús Luzardo soon originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Game 2 of the National League Division Series was arguably the biggest game of the Phillies’ season in 2025.

After a crushing defeat the night before, Philadelphia turned to Jesús Luzardo opposite the Dodgers’ Blake Snell, needing a strong outing. Luzardo delivered.

Six-plus innings, three hits, two runs, five strikeouts, including a stretch where he retired 17 consecutive batters. He then came out of the bullpen on short rest in Game 4 and punched out three more.

The Phillies lost the series. But Luzardo showed something that can’t be manufactured.

Guts.

Despite carrying a 7.71 ERA across three previous postseason starts, he left the past behind when it mattered most. The Peruvian-born, Florida raised southpaw stepped up when the entire city needed him to.

The Phillies could use a lot more of that. Which is why extending him this spring makes sense.

First, the context.

After acquiring him in a winter trade with Miami, Luzardo was everything the Phillies anticipated in 2025. He tied a career-high with 32 starts, led the staff with 15 wins, threw a career-best 183 2/3 innings and set a personal record with 217 strikeouts.

Durability was the calling card, a significant development after an injury-riddled 2024 that included left-elbow tightness and a lumbar stress reaction that ended his season in late June with an ERA north of six.

Like any professional athlete over a long season, Luzardo had his ebbs and flows. His were just more pronounced than most.

Through his first 11 starts, Luzardo posted a 2.15 ERA. Then a May 31 outing triggered an alarming ten-start stretch with an 8.04 ERA, the worst mark in baseball over that span.

The culprit turned out to be pitch-tipping. With runners on base in that span, opposing hitters batted .418 with a 1.263 OPS against him. With the bases empty, they hit .235 with a .598 OPS. The split is damning on its own.

Once the issue was identified, Luzardo fixed it. His final 11 starts produced a 2.84 ERA and a 2.65 FIP. Pair that with his first 11 outings and you have a pitcher who was largely dominant in his first season in Philadelphia.

That version of Luzardo is worth locking up.

So why now?

The CBA expires after the 2026 season, and a work stoppage figures to cloud the following offseason in ways that are difficult to predict. Getting a deal done before that uncertainty sets in is cleaner for both sides.

The market context matters too. Here are the top 12 average annual value contracts for left-handed starters in baseball history:

• Framber Valdez — Tigers (Feb. 2026) — 3 yrs/$115M (AAV $38.3M) — Age 32
• Blake Snell — Dodgers (Nov. 2024) — 5 yrs/$182M (AAV $36.4M) — Age 31
• David Price — Red Sox (Dec. 2015) — 7 yrs/$217M (AAV $31.0M) — Age 30
• Blake Snell — Giants (Mar. 2024) — 2 yrs/$62M (AAV $31.0M) — Age 31
• Clayton Kershaw — Dodgers (Jan. 2014) — 7 yrs/$215M (AAV $30.7M) — Age 25
• Max Fried — Yankees (Dec. 2024) — 8 yrs/$218M (AAV $27.25M) — Age 30
• Carlos Rodón — Yankees (Dec. 2022) — 6 yrs/$162M (AAV $27.0M) — Age 30
• Ranger Suárez — Red Sox (Jan. 2026) — 5 yrs/$130M (AAV $26.0M) — Age 30
• Jon Lester — Cubs (Dec. 2014) — 6 yrs/$155M (AAV $25.8M) — Age 31
• Jordan Montgomery — D-backs (Mar. 2024) — 1 yr/$25M (AAV $25.0M) — Age 32
• Cliff Lee — Phillies (Dec. 2010) — 5 yrs/$120M (AAV $24.0M) — Age 29
• Patrick Corbin — Nationals (Dec. 2018) — 6 yrs/$140M (AAV $23.33M) — Age 28

What stands out is his age. Nearly every elite left-handed starter has hit free agency at 30 or older. Luzardo turns 29 in September. If he puts together a strong 2026, his price balloons — and he knows it.

The most instructive comparison is old friend Ranger Suárez. Represented by Scott Boras, he landed five years at $130 million, after posting a 3.20 ERA in 2025. But Suárez has never made 30 starts in a season or surpassed 160 innings. 

Luzardo has cleared 175 innings twice and made 32 starts in each of those seasons. That durability is exactly why the Phillies didn’t chase Suárez. And it’s exactly why Luzardo commands more.

A realistic extension offer would be five years at $140 million — $28 million in AAV. He’ll make $11 million in arbitration this season, so the Phillies have a window to get ahead of a number that will only climb.

The financial picture also sets up well for Philadelphia beyond 2026. Nick Castellanos ($20 million) and Taijuan Walker ($18 million) are both coming off the books, freeing up roughly $38 million before accounting for other pending free agents.

Also, there’s not a great deal of promise ahead for this rotation. Zack Wheeler has indicated he’ll retire when his contract expires after next season. Fellow Floridian Andrew Painter is the only arm in the system with a clear path to the rotation — as the fifth starter — in the near term.

The farm depth is there but rooted in the lower levels.

One more thing working in the Phillies’ favor: Luzardo is represented by Roc Nation, not Boras, who he walked away from in 2018. Boras clients rarely sign extensions before hitting the open market. That distinction matters.

He’ll be around, too. Luzardo held himself out of the World Baseball Classic to focus on 2026. He’s already looked sharp in Clearwater. Dave Dombrowski has voiced confidence in the relationship and openness to extension talks.

The case is there. The timing is right. The Phillies should make it happen.

And if they do, expect this same conversation about Jhoan Duran right around this time next year.